FOOD AND ENERGY PRICES: AN ANALYSIS THROUGH VAR MODELS

Changes in global markets affect commodities and food prices, reducing the formation of stocks and leading to social instability. A recent problem is the destination of certain commodities (corn, sugarcane, rapeseed oil, soybean oil) to biofuels. To understand the links between products in the markets of energy and food, we proposed the use of vector autoregressive models (VAR) for analyzing the intertemporal relations between the variables, and the test of causality in the Granger sense.
We choose data from 2000 to 2012, selecting prices of corn, soybean oil, oil and biodiesel. The models showed that only prices of commodities used also for biofuels have a statistically significant relationship with the price of oil, while products intended for feeding only didn’t show links.
These results prove that price of corn and soybean oil is generated on energy rather than on food market, even if they have both destinations; on the contrary, the price of commodities not involved in the production of biofuels is not affected by the price of oil, since it’s not a competitor but factor production.

Autori: Leucci, A.,C., Ghinoi, S., Sgargi,D., Valdemar João Wesz, J.
Anno: 2013
Editore: Working Paper for the Agrimba Congress 2013 (Budva, Montenegro)
Analisi economiche e statistiche